Will secondary education be forced to change in the face of falling enrollment?
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Fewer programs, diminished funding for liberal arts, and empty dormitories seem a growing reality for many college campuses nationwide—especially in New York State (NYS). The national average for college enrollment from 2010 to 2024 saw an 11.61 percent decline, while SUNY schools, such as Potsdam, saw as much as a 43 percent decrease in first-year student enrollment. Geneseo itself has experienced a -22.57 percent enrollment difference since 2010. Several New York schools, including the College of Saint Rose, Medaille College, and Cazenovia College, have been forced to close due to decreased enrollment and funding issues.
These dismal statistics beg the question, what is the cause of these trends, and how is it affecting current college students and up-and-coming high school graduates?
One possible contributor is the rising number of high school students entering trade fields rather than a two or four-year institution. From 2022 to 2023, the NSC Research Center reported growth in construction fields by 19.3 percent, mechanics and repair by 11.5 percent, precision and production by 16.7 percent, and culinary by 12.7 percent. Whether it be from the destigmatization of trade preparatory programs like BOCES or the economic appeal of the trades over the increasingly expensive college institution, more and more students are choosing to enter these blue-collar fields rather than enroll in college.
Current college students and soon-to-be undergraduates also face the uncertainty of having their programs cut either in progress or before they even begin. Many schools across the country and in the SUNY system have to scrap programs with small enrollment numbers. In cases such as Geneseo, various majors in the liberal arts, especially fine arts, are being dissolved—if not already terminated, in favor of technological and science programs. For students who are seeking more niche majors and educational opportunities, they may not have affordable options to choose from; that is given the assumption that college now can even be considered affordable when, according to NYS Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, “costs have grown far more rapidly in New York than nationally – almost 46 percent compared to 34 percent.”
Many students are becoming increasingly aware that the promise of growing wages does not compensate for the rising cost of a degree. USAFacts reports that from 2000 to 2019, the cost of school increased by 59 percent, while national wages only increased by 5 percent. This discrepancy is nearing a breaking point, as many students are unwilling to take on the extensive debt required to obtain a degree that does not ensure an easy payoff.
If these trends of decreasing enrollment and increasing prices continue, NYS and the broader country may have to consider how secondary education must change to accommodate the economic and professional environment. Perhaps a four-year degree, which is considered the academic standard, will be supplemented by professional certification programs that model trade schools. Instead of taking 120 credits, where only 40 are typically major-specific, students might enroll in programs specifically designed to produce professionals without the excess requirements.