Major takeaways from key 2023 electoral races across the country

Rural areas recently allowed Governor Andy Beshear to cruise to a second term and win re-election by a larger margin than he did four years ago. The incumbent defeated Republican nominee Daniel Cameron who has served as the Attorney General for the Bluegrass State since 2019. Cameron, notably the first Black nominee for Governor in the state history of Kentucky, had garnered support from both Former President Trump and Senate Majority Leader and fellow Kentucky native Mitch McConnell, a rare feat for today’s Republican candidates.

Ultimately, Beshear’s appeal to rural voters helped lead him to victory once again in a state that has been a Republican stronghold for decades. The Democratic nominee flipped five rural counties that were carried by the Republicans in the previous Governor’s race and expanded his margin of victory from a mere 0.4% in 2019 to now 5%. Beshear’s across-the-aisle appeal to both Independent and Republican voters proved to be a difference maker. He credited bipartisanship in his election night speech. "Tonight, Kentucky made a choice. A choice not to move to the right or to the left, but to move forward for every single family," Beshear said. "A choice to reject team R or team D, and to state clearly that we are one team Kentucky.”

Governor Tate Reeves edged out challenger and Mississippi Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley in what was the closest Governor’s race that the state has seen since 1999. Political strategists credit Presley’s socially moderate views as a possible explanation for such a strong showing from a Democratic candidate in the conservative stronghold. Brandon Presley, cousin of the late pop singer and American icon Elvis Presley, has held office in the deep Republican territory of Northern Mississippi since 2008, and was seen as primed for the statewide Democratic nod.

Despite Presley’s appeal, Reeves was able to gain enough support to beat the challenging candidate by 4.5%, which significantly underperforms Trump’s 17% victory in the state during the 2020 Presidential election.

Around three weeks prior to election day, Louisiaians had already elected their 57th Governor. On Oct. 14, 2023 Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry (R-LA) had broken the 50% vote threshold, which guarantees victory without a runoff election for candidates in Louisiana. Landry was able to beat out 14 other candidates to avoid a runoff. This was the first time a candidate won a Louisiana gubernatorial election without a runoff since 2011.

The staunch conservative and Trump-backed Landry had defeated numerous Republican challengers including businessman Stephen Waguespack who had been endorsed by Louisiana Congressman Garret Graves, an ally of Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Current Governor and moderate Democrat John Bel Edwards was unable to run for a third term due to term limits.

Two years after Governor Glenn Youngkin’s upset victory sent shockwaves throughout the nation, Virginia Democrats rebounded by taking back control of the House of Delegates. They now hold a one-seat majority in both chambers of the state legislature.

The competitiveness of the Virginia legislature races signal that Virginia may very well be turning into the bellwether state that Republicans have sought. Only a few years removed from Biden’s comfortable 10% margin of victory in the state, Virginia will now be under multi-party rule as GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin and the now fully Democratic controlled legislature will now have to work together to push any legislation forward.

Republican Ed Romaine handily defeated Democratic candidate Dave Calone, receiving 57.1% of the vote share. Romaine’s victory will make him the first Republican to hold Suffolk County’s executive seat in 20 years. The result continues to endorse the notion that Long Island has recently shifted to the right, which began in last year’s midterm elections. “Long Island has become a Republican bastion,”  Ed Cox, the New York State Republican Party chairman, told the New York Post. The 2022 election cycle had seen the GOP make significant gains in both statewide and congressional races in the typically purple region, which eventually led to Republicans gaining control of the House.

In Erie County, 58.6% of voters ensured that incumbent executive Mark Poloncarz received a fourth term in office. Poloncarz defeated Republican businesswoman Chrissy Casilio who has criticized the Democratic executive for his response to the 2022 Buffalo winter storm. Executive Poloncarz has stated that this term will be his last. Back in September, Poloncarz said, "This will be the last time I ever run for county executive." This self-imposed pledge will lead to an open race for Erie County Executive next election cycle.